Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) reported a smaller-than-forecast 3% profit drop Thursday and said it would have a good second quarter. Higher feedstock and energy costs were blamed for the drop. The chemical giant reported earnings of 99 cents per share, beating the 94 cents estimate.
If two weeks ago some hoped we've seen the bottom of the subprime mortgage crisis, since then more problems, especially with European banks seem to pop. Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) reported a wider-than-forecast loss of $2.1 billion on a $5.3 billion writeoff as the global effects of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis continued to spread. Share of CS though are rising in premarket trading about 1.8% as the bank may have seen the worst.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) shareholders don't want the bank to proceed with the $4 billion acquision of Courntrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC), the mortgage lender that has become the poster child for the subprime mortgage problems. The have pleaded on Wednesday with the bank's CEO.
For nervous investors and analysts looking for good news on the earnings front, it's been a week of mixed blessings. However, judging by the expectations for the following ten so-called barometers of the U.S. economy, or important sectors of it, things could be looking up. All these companies are scheduled to report quarterly results next week (April 21 to April 25).
These first six companies are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post growth in profits in the most recent quarter, compared to the same period of last year:
Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE: EMN) manufactures and markets chemicals, fibers and plastics. Key products include coatings, adhesives, specialty plastics, cellulose acetate fibers, polyethylene terephthalate polymers for packaging, and intermediates based on oxo and acetyl chemistries. The company has operations in 23 countries and employees 11,000. Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) is a major competitor.
Eastman surprised investors earlier in the week, when it issued upside guidance for first quarter earnings. The firm now sees Q1 EPS of $1.30, versus the Street consensus estimate of $1.21. Management said that continued strong sales volume and higher selling prices offset higher raw material and energy costs.
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PolyOne Corporation (NYSE: POL) provides vinyl compounds, polymer coating systems, screen printing inks, engineered films, specialty resins, colors, additives and high performance compounds to 10,000 customers in 35 countries. The company also distributes a full range of resins from such manufacturers as Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) and DuPont (NYSE: DD). PolyOne operates from manufacturing facilities and joint ventures in North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Australia.
The firm surprised investors last week, when it announced Q4 EPS of 9 cents and revenues of $631.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 7 cents and $623.9 million. In discussing the solid quarter, the CEO particularly noted growth in the PolyOne construction-independent non-vinyl businesses. Management also guided FY08 revenues to about $2.91-$2.96 billion, versus Street consensus of $2.68 billion.
Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE: EMN) manufactures and markets chemicals, fibers and plastics. Key products include coatings, adhesives, specialty plastics, cellulose acetate fibers, polyethylene terephthalate polymers for packaging, and intermediates based on oxo and acetyl chemistries. The company has operations in 23 countries and employees 11,000. Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) is a major competitor.
Eastman surprised investors late last month, when it reported Q4 EPS of $1.27 and revenues of $1.74 billion. Analysts had been expecting $1.11 and $1.67 billion. Management also guided Q1 EPS above $1.19 ($1.19 consensus) and estimated FY08 EPS of $5.06 ($4.92 consensus).
Stock futures were higher this morning, indicating Wall Street could start on a positive note, continuing yesterday's late-session rally as investors hope for further rate cuts. Investors will also examine more economic data and earnings today.
In what has become usual on Wall Street, the bleak new-home sales numbers reported Monday actually helped push stocks higher as it reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a half-point this week. The Dow industrials finished up 176 points, or 1.45%, the S&P 500 was up 23 points, or 1.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 23 points, or 1.02%.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to open the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday afternoon. The decided policy announcement usually comes at the conclusion of the meeting, that is tomorrow at 2:15 p.m. EST. The key rate now stands at 3.5% after the Fed had cut rates by three-quarter-point in an emergency meeting last week. Many economists believe the Fed will lower its key rate by as much as one-half percentage point to 3%. Banks will then lower the prime rate, helping lenders get loans at lower rates.
A number of economic readings Tuesday include some more housing data:
RealtyTrac already reported foreclosure data. The number of foreclosures soared by 75% in 2007, with 405,000 households losing their home, with total foreclosure filings soared 97% in December alone compared with December of 2006.
At 8:30 a.m. EST, December durable goods orders is due.
At 9 a.m., the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November is released.
At 10 a.m. January consumer confidence will be reported. The Census Bureau will also give its report on fourth-quarter home ownership and the number of vacant homes for sale on the market.
The earnings season crunch continues, and among companies scheduled to report earnings tomorrow are Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY), Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), and US Steel Corp. (NYSE: X). Here is a quick peek at each of them.
Eli Lilly hasn't missed quarterly earnings expectations in the past three years. When it reported third-quarter 2007 results back in October, its earnings per share of 90 cents beat the consensus estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial by seven cents, as well as the actual 80 cents per share in the same period of the previous year. For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 89 cents per share, or $3.54 per share for the full year. That's up from $3.18 in 2006.
But Eli Lilly's 8.3% earnings per share growth forecast for the next year is less than the industry average. The analysts' consensus recommendation has been to hold Eli Lilly for the past six months. Shares have fallen recently to about two bucks above the 52-week low of $49.09 back in November.
For drug company news that could influence the earnings results, see BloggingStocks' Eli Lilly coverage.
Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX) is the largest inland tank barge operator in the United States, transporting petrochemicals and agricultural chemicals via a fleet of some 900 barges and 240 towboats. The firm also owns and operates four ocean-going barge and tug units, transporting dry-bulk commodities along the coast. Further, Kirby is a leading provider of diesel engine services for the marine, rail, and industrial markets. Customers include Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).
The company pleased investors last week when it announced that it was expecting Q4 EPS to exceed 62 cents. That topped the average Street expectation for a 61 cent per share profit. Management cited continued strength in Kirby's core businesses for the positive view. KEX shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the stock with five "strong buys," two "buys" and three "holds." Analysts see a 19% average annual growth rate through the next five years. The KEX PEG ratio (1.01), Sales Growth rate (14.36%), EPS Growth rate (33.33%) and Return on Assets (8.44%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 87% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $34.36 and $50.72. A stop-loss of $34.15 looks good here. Note that the firm is expected to release fourth quarter results on January 30, after the close.
Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.
With stocks beaten up, those courageous investors looking for cheap stocks should take a look at Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW). With the recent announcement of its 50/50 joint venture with Kuwait's Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC), to form a market-leading, global petrochemicals company, Dow stands to become the world's leading petrochemical company. Look for growth in China to help propel earnings over the next decade.
"We're creating a petrochemicals company that will be a global leader from its first day of operation, an $11 billion company that is well positioned to grow profitably across the industry cycle," said Andrew N. Liveris, Dow chairman and CEO. "For Dow, this marks an important milestone in our transformational strategy: growing our Basics businesses through joint ventures; reducing our capital intensity; and, freeing up cash to invest in our portfolio of Performance and Market Facing businesses."
The stock is off 20% from its high, and it's now sporting a juicy yield of 4.5%. That's not all; the stock has a P/E of about 10.60 and more importantly, a PEG of just 0.86. So what you have is a company with nice growth, paying a handsome dividend, that has gotten pounded down. Dow Chemical looks like a winner for investors over the next few years.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no position long or short in any stock mentioned as of 1/8/08.
The market's choppy / consolidating pattern continues as 2008 begins, so defensive stocks remain prudent plays, and among these, Dow Chemical is worth a review.
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) is the No. 2 chemical company in the world and the largest in the United States. A leader in performance plastics, Dow's other products include polyethylene resins, fibers, films, and performance chemicals such as acrylic acid.
In general, analysts see a kaleidoscope of pricing conditions for Dow, but favorable industry revenue fundamentals on solid global economic growth: international sales account for more than 60% of revenue. Moreover, that patchwork of pricing conditions has prompted Wall Street to take a more-cautious stance with DOW, which has driven its P/E to about 12, but view that as getting DOW for a bargain price.
The risks? The standout risk with Dow concerns volatile costs for raw material. A substantial cost increase in this category could squeeze Dow's earnings results. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for DOW are $3.71/$3.50.
The First Call mean rating for DOW is: Hold. [17 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $49.00 [high: $55, low: $43.]
Stock Analysis: Dow Chemical is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from DOW's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $27.
DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.
If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.
The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.
Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.
Tribune Co. (NYSE: TRB) is bracing for the "Sam Zell era" as he is set to take the ailing newspaper and TV company private with the expected closing of his $8.2 billion buyout as soon as Thursday.
According to Think Secret, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Think Secret have settled their lawsuit in a confidential, "amicable" settlement. While no sources were revealed, Think Secret will no longer be published. Bloggers lament ThinkSecret: TUAW and Engadget -- if this is true, I wonder if Apple made the right move.
Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is expected to post earnings of 62 cents a share in the third quarter. Cruise operator Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) is also scheduled to report earnings today.
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks: 
For nervous investors and analysts looking for good news on the earnings front, it's been a week of mixed blessings. However, judging by the expectations for the following ten so-called barometers of the U.S. economy, or important sectors of it, things could be looking up. All these companies are scheduled to report quarterly results next week (April 21 to April 25).
Stock futures were higher this morning, indicating Wall Street could start on a positive note, continuing yesterday's late-session rally as investors hope for further rate cuts. Investors will also examine more economic data and earnings today.
Eli Lilly hasn't missed 
the average Street expectation for a 61 cent per share profit. Management cited continued strength in Kirby's core businesses for the positive view. KEX shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
The market's choppy / consolidating pattern continues as 2008 begins, so defensive stocks remain prudent plays, and among these, Dow Chemical is worth a review.
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